Since today is the day that the 2025 Classic Baseball Era results will be released, the mind wanders to eternal question, “what if”? This was the day that we hoped to be waiting to hear if Doc Adams’ 164-year drought would end. Well, there’s no drama, we already know the answer. But one wonders what the chances of this pioneer getting elected in the future are.

As of 2024, there are 346 members of the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

The Baseball Hall of Fame is one of the most exclusive clubs with only 1.6% of players ever receiving the honor of enshrinement. Which begs the question, what is the easiest route to the Hall of Fame other than buying a ticket? It turns out that there is a way to increase the odds to better than 50% and with a little longevity, the odds increase to 100%.

Of the 9 former MLB commissioners, 5 are members of the Hall of Fame. In fact, everyone with a tenure of over 4 years is in. So, if you become commissioner, you have a 55% chance of receiving a plaque. If you can make it to year 5, your enshrinement is certain. Now granted it’s a small sample size – but that makes it even more astounding. Baseball has been extremely fortunate to experience excellence in its top leadership role orders of magnitude greater than at any other “position” in the game. So, enjoy Rob Manfred’s tenure while it lasts as he appears to be a lock to become a member of Hall of Fame’s elite club. Remember you heard it here first.

• Kenesaw Mountain Landis (1921-1944)
• A.B. “Happy” Chandler (1945-1951)
• Ford Christopher Frick (1951-1965)
• General William D. Eckert (1965-1968)
• Bowie Kent Kuhn (1969-1984)
• Peter Victor Ueberroth (1984-1988)
• Bartlett Giamatti (1988-1989)
• Francis T. Vincent Jr. (1989-1992)
• Allan H. “Bud” Selig (1998-2015)
• Robert D. Manfred, Jr. (2015 – present)
  
  

Pioneers, especially early baseball pioneers, seem to be the least likely receive the honor (with the possible exception of umpires). There are 40 Executive/Pioneers of which maybe one-quarter could be considered pioneers. I’m not sure what the total “population” of individuals that could be considered pioneers (from Doc Adams to William Wheaton to Dr. Frank Jobe) is, but there’s surely more than 1000, which would mean their odds of getting elected would be less than 1%.

Some of the Hall of Famers that may be considered pioneers (opinions may vary):

• George Wright
• Alexander Cartwright
• Henry Chadwick
• Charles Comiskey
• Candy Cummings
• Albert Spalding
• Clark Griffith
• Barney Dreyfuss
  
  

As the Era Committees are configured today, the odds of a pioneer getting elected are probably closer to 0% than they’ve ever been. It’s nearly impossible to even get on a ballot. It seems like it is finally time to consider a Special Pioneers Committee similar to the National Football League’s Hall of Fame Contributor category. This is one of several areas where baseball would be smart to follow the lead of the NFL. Unless the Baseball Hall of Fame desires to continue to ignore early baseball history, this would go a long way in addressing their shortcomings in achieving their mission of “Honoring, by enshrinement, those individuals who had exceptional careers, and recognizing others for their significant achievements”.

Under the current Era structure, early baseball pioneers won’t be eligible to be considered again until the 2028 Classic Baseball Era ballot. Until then we will continue to do the Hall of Fame’s job raising awareness of the history of the early game, in particular, the role played by Daniel Lucius ‘Doc’ Adams.